Our subject-matter experts have industry working experience, commercial expertise, and leadership exposure. Through services including our Bespoke Consulting, Energy and Feedstocks insight, and comprehensive coverage of over 300 core chemicals via our Market Advisory Services, World Analysis Services, and Circular Plastics Service, we provide both short- and long-term market perspectives tailored to clients’ needs.

We also host a series of industry briefing and networking conferences worldwide, including the flagship World Chemical Forum, a platform for the chemical industry to stay connected and informed in this dynamic landscape.

How do you expect the chemical and petrochemical landscape to evolve in the next five years?

The next five years will be pivotal. The Energy Transition (ET) is in progress, demanding significant investment, innovation, and regulatory support. However, the chemical industry is going through a deep trough. CMA forecasts lower margins for most base chemicals over the next five years, triggering further rationalization and consolidation. In such an environment, survival will likely be the top priority.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s re-election as US president has shifted the political landscape. Trade barriers and prospects of economic decoupling between regions/markets will impact our industry. Regulatory uncertainty adds to the mix as President-elect Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda takes hold.

What do you anticipate being the biggest threats and opportunities for chemical and petrochemical producers in 2025?

The prospect of a worldwide trade war is the biggest threat. We estimate that 42% of bulk chemicals produced are consumed in another geography. The new US government intends to implement tariffs on imports from China and a Universal Trade Tariff, likely inviting retaliation and amplifying trade disputes.

Climate concerns are on the rise as extreme weather events become the norm in almost every geography. Our industry recognizes that ET/net-zero mandates could backlash in the long term if not realized. However, the lack of global consensus and regulatory frameworks is hindering progress. The ongoing trade and IP war between the US/Western Europe and China further complicates realizing many ET targets economically. The new Trump administration may also repeal certain IRA elements and even EPA mandates.

Meanwhile, the UN-INC’s forthcoming meet in South Korea will be closely watched for an update on the globally binding treaty on plastics pollution under development.

These challenges come at a time when our industry is navigating an extended low- margin cycle. Those who survive the trough while also managing to invest in new technologies/assets will likely emerge from this cycle as competitive players in the ET economy.

What are some of the greatest opportunities for development and growth here in the Gulf, and where do you expect to see the region heading in the short to near term?

Several marginal producers in Europe and Asia will likely rationalize and consolidate until the market rebalances. Producers in cost-competitive feedstock regions (including the Middle East) are well positioned to grow market share and expand net exporter positions.

The Middle East will also play a key role in the global ET. We believe that several very large-scale hydrogen/derivatives projects will materialize in the region, supporting the establishment of a global low-carbon hydrogen market. This is especially so as many projects in the United States, which was growing into a major low-carbon hydrogen player, will be delayed under the new government.

You’ll be moderating a Leadership dialogue about Geo-politics on Day 4 at the Annual GPCA Forum. What do you expect from this year’s gathering and what do you hope to achieve?

There are significant disruptors and structural changes affecting our markets. The ET was gaining momentum but is now facing several setbacks which will certainly slow its pace as we will likely experience a polarization of sustainability policies in the West. In the shorter term, margins will remain a concern. The trade and investment environment is volatile. CMA’s insights support informed strategic decisions. I look forward to interesting discussions and engagement with our clients, and to share insights that help them navigate these uncertain times.